Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:31:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x5925…6cc4
weather · 1421 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$108 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$108 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$83
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1209 / 207
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1416 / 1421
History coverage101d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 5 History 1416 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$10
14 days+$3
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 14? No 97¢ 97¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 5? No 96¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 1? No 85¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 27? No 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4? No 97¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 7? No 87¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 1? No 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 20? No 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 1? No 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 44°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 09 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 10? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 09 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% −$86
tech 0% −$9
other 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $18 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $19 13h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $19 13h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $19 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $19 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $19 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $20 25h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $20 25h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $20 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $10 37h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 62¢ $3 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 +0.3% -9.3% 79% 3% -8.5%
≤30d 433 +0.4% -9.2% 82% 4% -8.7%
≤90d 1404 -0.7% -10.1% 85% 16% -10.3%
all 1416 -0.8% -10.2% 85% 16% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 16% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 6% -18.9%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.28 · official $83.28 (match) · 2889 history records