Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5925…b194 world 47 markets active 10h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15,511 (-5%) realized −$17,323 · open +$1,812
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,204per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$187est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$9,112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52,766
7 days+$52,766
14 days+$52,766
30 days−$72,220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% −$14,844
sports 3% +$137
other 1% +$2,218
finance 1% −$1,800
politics 0% −$1,050
economics 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +137.1% +114.5% 80% 80% +60.6%
≤30d 7 +69.3% +53.2% 57% 57% -41.9%
≤90d 40 +11.2% +0.6% 28% 25% -13.8%
all 44 +36.0% +23.1% 34% 32% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.1% 32% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here +11.3% 32% -21.3%
15% +0.5% 32% -28.9%
20% -9.3% 32% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$6,350) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +109% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
16.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13,185 vs −$7,413 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$9,112
Realized−$17,323
Unrealized+$1,812
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$187
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage154d
Avg bet$7,204
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 88¢ $7,000 $8,850 +$1,850 (+26%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $100 $57 −$43 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $46,951 +$26,973 +58%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1,426 +$2,574 +180%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $19,329 +$22,607 +117%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $189 +$811 +430%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $122,012 −$121,793 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $3,193 −$3,193 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $31,777 −$31,230 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $2,285 −$2,285 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $30,483 −$30,483 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $7,486 −$7,486 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $7,978 −$586 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 19 $2,880 −$142 -5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 19 $12,000 −$12,000 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 19 $300 −$300 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Apr 19 $700 −$700 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 19 $301 −$301 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 19 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Apr 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $90–$100 on April 8? Apr 19 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 14 $3,477 +$12 +0%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $350 +$649 +185%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $250 −$78 -31%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $100 −$26 -26%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 07 $7,500 +$4,204 +56%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 07 $2,000 +$1,811 +90%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $9,500 +$15,812 +166%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $7,099 +$31,602 +445%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $6,350 +$87,736 +1382%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 05 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026? Apr 05 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026? Apr 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between February 20-23, 2026? Apr 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between February 24-27, 2026? Mar 23 $150 −$150 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 mi Mar 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Mar 23 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $200 +$709 +354%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Feb 16 $200 +$151 +75%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 mi Feb 16 $300 +$708 +236%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Feb 16 $300 +$1,409 +470%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $572 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 25¢ $778 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 24¢ $4 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $145 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $8 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $6 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $17 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $6 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $0 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $0 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $0 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $1 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $1,023 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 37¢ $405 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $1,021 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 26¢ $1,410 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 50¢ $7 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 50¢ $1,751 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 50¢ $3 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 50¢ $2 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 50¢ $8 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 48¢ $503 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 50¢ $145 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 50¢ $54 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $727 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $250 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $5,599 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $1,758 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 51¢ $411 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 49¢ $2,926 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,112.07 · official $9,112.07 (match) · 903 history records