Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5922…0895 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-11%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$67
other 10% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -4.6% -13.7% 25% 25% -25.2%
≤90d 5 -5.8% -14.8% 20% 20% -20.5%
all 5 -5.8% -14.8% 20% 20% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 20% -20.5%
10% -23.0% 20% -28.1%
15% -30.4% 20% -35.0%
20% -37.2% 20% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$18 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage76d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $21 −$15 -73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $83 −$3 -4%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $451 −$49 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $2 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $2 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $4 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 93¢ $47 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 12¢ $9 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 12¢ $10 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 64¢ $33 17d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 23¢ $33 25d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 34¢ $50 60d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $50 60d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $8 61d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $12 61d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $20 61d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $8 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $9 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $12 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.75 · official $47.75 (match) · 59 history records