Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
59 0x591f…4e0d sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$2,401 (+162%) realized +$2,401 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$494per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +58.9% +43.8% 33% 33% +129.9%
≤30d 3 +58.9% +43.8% 33% 33% +129.9%
≤90d 3 +58.9% +43.8% 33% 33% +129.9%
all 3 +58.9% +43.8% 33% 33% +129.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.8% 33% +129.9%
10% +30.0% 33% +107.9%
15% +17.5% 33% +87.8%
20% +5.9% 33% +69.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +154% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +154% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,902 vs −$337 · ×8.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.3 per $1 lost it wins $4.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,401
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage2d
Avg bet$494
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $395 −$375 -95%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $316 −$300 -95%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $770 +$2,902 +377%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $395 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $316 31h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $3,672 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $454 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $317 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 5 history records