trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 14 | $59 | +$1 | +1% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $8 | −$6 | -67% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $2 | −$1 | -35% |
| US military action against Iran by Saturday? | Jun 24 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election | Jun 21 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jun 14 | $3 | $0 | +7% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? | Jun 14 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | Jun 13 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jun 13 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh | Jun 13 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and | Jun 11 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jun 09 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 07 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? | Jun 06 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? | Jun 05 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 05 | $11 | +$1 | +7% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 08 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? | Mar 29 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Dillon Danis win the match? | Mar 26 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -12.5% | -20.9% | 25% | 0% | -12.0% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -12.5% | -20.9% | 25% | 0% | -12.0% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -12.5% | -20.9% | 25% | 0% | -12.0% |
| all | 25 | -7.2% | -16.0% | 48% | 0% | -13.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.0% | 0% | -13.9% |
| 10% | -24.1% | 0% | -22.1% |
| 15% | -31.4% | 0% | -29.7% |
| 20% | -38.1% | 0% | -36.5% |