Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x591d…f4df sports 207 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$632 (+3%) realized +$650 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%96W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$337est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$514
7 days+$735
14 days−$272
30 days+$739
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$454
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +26.0% +14.0% 61% 61% +6.6%
≤30d 198 +6.9% -3.3% 47% 47% -6.3%
≤90d 204 +5.8% -4.3% 47% 47% -7.5%
all 204 +5.8% -4.3% 47% 47% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 47% -7.5%
10% -13.5% 47% -16.3%
15% -21.8% 47% -24.4%
20% -29.5% 47% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$97 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$282
Realized+$650
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses96 / 108
Est. fees paid−$337
Open positions3
Markets (closed)204 / 207
History coverage33d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 38¢ 36¢ $99 $95 −$4 (-4%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 36¢ 34¢ $102 $94 −$7 (-7%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Power Rangers 56¢ 52¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $102 +$104 +103%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $195 +$265 +136%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $102 −$91 -89%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Estar Backs (+1.5) Jun 17 $54 +$46 +86%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $103 +$127 +124%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $102 +$116 +114%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 16 $97 +$73 +76%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $101 +$95 +93%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $102 +$78 +76%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $104 +$76 +73%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $127 −$125 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $118 −$116 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $127 +$89 +70%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $127 +$128 +101%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $52 +$118 +226%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $104 +$76 +73%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $103 +$157 +152%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $103 −$102 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $126 +$149 +119%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $105 +$95 +90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$77 +76%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $102 +$98 +97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $206 +$234 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $101 −$99 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $349 −$344 -99%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$6 +146%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 +$126 +124%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $53 +$77 +146%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $106 −$104 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $104 −$103 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $103 −$101 -98%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $103 −$101 -98%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $152 −$150 -99%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $66 −$64 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $101 +$80 +79%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 09 $101 +$87 +86%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $228 −$225 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $102 +$121 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY Yellow Submarine 36¢ $61 44m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL MOUZ 64¢ $64 46m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY MOUZ 70¢ $71 50m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $101 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 53¢ $101 3h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY Yellow Submarine 36¢ $42 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 56¢ $101 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy $11 10h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ $101 11h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 49¢ $102 11h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $99 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $96 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $102 26h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $102 26h
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Estar Backs (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 53¢ $54 33h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 51¢ $101 35h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 46¢ $102 35h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $25 37h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $20 37h
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 48¢ $5 37h
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 57¢ $17 45h
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 57¢ $58 45h
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 56¢ $17 45h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $98 2d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 58¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 44¢ $103 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 57¢ $104 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 58¢ $127 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 23¢ $26 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $203 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.29 · official $284.89 (match) · 368 history records