Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:42:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x591c…619f weather 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$189 (-6%) realized −$188 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate60%47W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 59% −$132
sports 13% −$65
other 9% −$33
politics 8% −$6
finance 5% +$8
world 3% −$11
tech 2% +$2
culture 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -11.6% -20.0% 75% 50% -27.1%
≤30d 42 -12.6% -20.9% 71% 31% -15.7%
≤90d 78 -13.5% -21.7% 60% 28% -15.8%
all 78 -13.5% -21.7% 60% 28% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 28% -15.8%
10% -29.2% 9% -23.8%
15% -36.0% 5% -31.2%
20% -42.3% 5% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$19 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$188
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses47 / 31
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage53d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India Australia 69¢ 66¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $45 −$45 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $38 +$7 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 24? Jun 24 $30 +$8 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $28 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $52 −$52 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $46 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $42 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $34 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $34 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $27 +$3 +12%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $17 −$15 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $41 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 6? Jun 06 $37 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $85 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $79 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 06 $72 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $66 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $61 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $58 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 05 $50 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 04 $46 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $42 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $29 −$28 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $27 +$2 +8%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $38 −$37 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $39 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $34 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 02 $45 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $41 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 02 $35 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 1? Jun 01 $33 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 76°F or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $31 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $32 −$1 -2%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 01 $25 +$7 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 31? May 31 $5 −$3 -64%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $16 −$10 -62%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma May 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Trump say "Eagle" in May? May 23 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 22? May 22 $86 −$84 -98%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Lancashire May 22 $91 −$5 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY Australia 69¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 86¢ $45 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $45 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 84¢ $38 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $38 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 24? BUY No 78¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 91¢ $28 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 17d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 87¢ $38 17d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 17d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? BUY No 90¢ $46 17d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $46 17d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 91¢ $42 17d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 17d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? BUY Yes 89¢ $34 17d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 17d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? BUY Yes 88¢ $34 18d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 18d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 18d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 18d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? BUY Yes 88¢ $27 18d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 18d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? SELL No 3¢ $1 18d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? BUY No 39¢ $17 18d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7? BUY Yes 94¢ $45 21d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $46 21d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 90¢ $41 21d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $41 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.17 · official $26.37 (match) · 159 history records