Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x591c…fc21 other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$29
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$20
sports 25% −$19
politics 21% −$17
world 8% −$4
crypto 6% −$3
economics 5% −$5
culture 4% −$6
tech 2% −$21
finance 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 65 -0.8% -10.3% 2% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 114 -0.7% -10.2% 4% 0% -10.0%
all 133 -0.6% -10.1% 5% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage102d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $62 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $58 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $216 −$1 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 19 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 19 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 18 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $151 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 18 $169 −$2 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $122 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $45 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $463 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $44 −$1 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 13 $262 −$2 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $243 −$1 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $46 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $87 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $53 $0 -1%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $47 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $104 −$2 -2%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $96 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 06 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $54 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $58 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $120 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 05 $42 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $153 −$3 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $47 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $310 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $62 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $57 2h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $0 8h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 8h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $39 8h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 9h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 16h
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 96¢ $66 16h
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 98¢ $67 23h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $48 24h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $49 32h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $40 32h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $41 41h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $44 41h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $42 45h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $1 45h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $54 46h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $55 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $56 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $51 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $62 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $63 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $36 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 3d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $56 3d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $56 3d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.49 · official $61.55 (match) · 501 history records