Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5917…bcfb sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$171 (-15%) realized −$140 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$47
14 days−$209
30 days−$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$188
other 30% −$34
sports 26% +$6
crypto 4% +$11
politics 2% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -62.9% -66.5% 0% 0% -59.7%
≤30d 20 +30.5% +18.0% 40% 35% -28.4%
≤90d 20 +30.5% +18.0% 40% 35% -28.4%
all 25 +26.9% +14.9% 40% 36% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.9% 36% -25.0%
10% +3.9% 32% -32.2%
15% -6.2% 32% -38.7%
20% -15.4% 28% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$32 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$140
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage164d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Over 28¢ $32 $1 −$31 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $51 −$13 -26%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $350 −$204 -58%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $17 +$36 +213%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 15 $71 −$4 -6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $64 −$54 -85%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? Jun 15 $32 −$6 -20%
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Kansas City Chiefs next? Jun 15 $92 +$7 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $14 +$90 +656%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$12 +113%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$10 +189%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $35 +$59 +167%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $27 −$1 -5%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 mil Jun 03 $47 +$7 +15%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $25 +$29 +116%
Adelaide International: Tomas Machac vs Tommy Paul Jan 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Magic Jan 16 $50 +$26 +51%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 15 $26 $0 -1%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 13 $25 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 28¢ $33 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $6 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $11 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $17 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $37 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $17 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $28 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $25 9d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $25 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $17 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $25 10d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $25 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $17 10d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 10d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 10d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? SELL Yes $26 10d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? BUY Yes $32 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $10 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $42 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $22 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $53 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $53 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $32 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 27¢ $32 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $4 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $60 10d
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Kansas City Chiefs next? SELL Yes 46¢ $65 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.68 · official $1.31 (match) · 92 history records