Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:45:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
59 0x5915…cee1 world 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,339 (+58%) realized +$1,341 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$94
14 days+$94
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$1,307
other 9% +$30
sports 7% −$2
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +93.0% +74.6% 100% 100% +74.6%
≤30d 1 +93.0% +74.6% 100% 100% +74.6%
≤90d 5 -34.8% -41.0% 20% 20% -54.6%
all 7 +9.2% -1.2% 43% 43% +48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 43% +48.0%
10% -10.7% 43% +33.8%
15% -19.3% 43% +20.9%
20% -27.2% 43% +9.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$584 vs −$104 · ×5.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.22 per $1 lost it wins $4.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$1,341
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage106d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$94 +93%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 16 $198 −$198 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $100 −$64 -64%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 07 $93 −$3 -3%
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? Mar 06 $465 +$628 +135%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 01 $995 +$1,029 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $196 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026 BUY 14¢ $51 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $150 64d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 3¢ $36 64d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 9¢ $107 68d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 16¢ $90 68d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? SELL Yes 95¢ $90 68d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $93 68d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 100d
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? SELL No 93¢ $1,093 101d
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? BUY No 40¢ $465 103d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL No 61¢ $1,976 105d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL No 61¢ $48 105d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 30¢ $995 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.10 · official $148.12 (match) · 19 history records