Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:50:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5913…151f crypto 1130 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$70 (+0%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate78%886W / 244L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$738
7 days−$55
14 days+$198
30 days+$375
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +4.4% -5.6% 84% 71% -10.1%
≤30d 575 +3.3% -6.5% 75% 64% -7.9%
≤90d 1130 +0.2% -9.4% 78% 52% -9.9%
all 1130 +0.2% -9.4% 78% 52% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 52% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 28% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 16% -26.4%
20% -33.2% 10% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$25 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses886 / 244
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1130 / 1130
History coverage81d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1130 Trades
no open positions (193 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$218 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $303 −$302 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $33 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $264 +$44 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $218 +$23 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $274 +$28 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $172 +$51 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $55 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $160 −$153 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $182 −$178 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $138 −$136 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $198 +$192 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $172 +$43 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $302 +$103 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $221 −$218 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $191 +$31 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $220 −$216 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $261 −$257 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $194 +$58 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $241 +$28 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $166 +$18 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $88 +$82 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $301 +$108 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $188 +$97 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $150 +$24 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $172 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $186 +$33 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $221 +$48 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $214 +$115 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $172 +$37 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $166 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $161 +$41 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $69 +$16 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $175 +$72 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $189 +$28 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $67 +$15 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $227 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $294 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $129 −$127 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $97 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $106 +$38 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $106 +$25 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $166 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $16 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2752 history records