Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x5913…5f0d finance 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$564 (+3%) realized +$564 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate90%84W / 9L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$672now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$57
14 days+$101
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 49% +$327
tech 19% +$116
world 10% +$153
sports 8% −$136
politics 5% +$28
other 4% +$43
crypto 3% +$4
economics 3% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 37 +1.5% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 52 +0.7% -8.9% 96% 4% -8.0%
all 93 +0.6% -9.0% 90% 15% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 15% -7.2%
10% -17.7% 6% -16.1%
15% -25.6% 2% -24.2%
20% -32.9% 1% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$42 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$672
Realized+$564
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses84 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage189d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $672 $672 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 22 2026 Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of June 22 2 Jun 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of June 22 2 Jun 26 $381 +$21 +5%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of June 22 2026 Jun 26 $104 +$6 +6%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of June 22 2026 Jun 26 $126 +$6 +5%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 22 2 Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 24? Jun 24 $247 +$8 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on June 24? Jun 24 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 on June 24? Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $350 on June 24? Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 24? Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 23? Jun 23 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 23? Jun 23 $321 +$3 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on June 23? Jun 23 $214 +$2 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on June 22? Jun 22 $253 +$2 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 22? Jun 22 $362 +$5 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 18 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 18 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 18 $173 +$2 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 17? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 17? Jun 17 $229 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on June 17? Jun 17 $180 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 16? Jun 16 $608 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $571 +$36 +6%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $561 +$11 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on June 11? Jun 11 $555 +$5 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on June 10? Jun 11 $540 +$10 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $4 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 9? Jun 09 $151 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 9? Jun 09 $386 +$4 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $402 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? Jun 06 $230 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $292 +$8 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 4? Jun 04 $237 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $519 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $510 +$10 +2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? May 25 $454 +$61 +14%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of May 11 2026? May 17 $449 +$5 +1%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $306 +$11 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11? May 12 $98 +$2 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $73 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $356 +$4 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6? May 07 $416 +$4 +1%
Will Google reach $375 in April? Apr 29 $111 −$92 -82%
Will Tesla dip to $285 in April? Apr 27 $101 +$10 +10%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $734 −$85 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 08 $681 +$53 +8%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 05 $649 +$26 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 31? Apr 01 $176 +$24 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 99¢ $475 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of June 22 2026 BUY No 95¢ $48 2d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of June 22 2 BUY No 98¢ $13 2d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of June 22 2026 BUY No 98¢ $15 2d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 22 2 BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 22 2026 BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of June 22 2 BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of June 22 2026 BUY No 93¢ $56 2d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of June 22 2 BUY No 97¢ $245 2d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of June 22 2 BUY No 90¢ $123 3d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of June 22 2026 BUY No 95¢ $111 3d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 3d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $350 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 3d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 24? BUY Yes 97¢ $151 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $104 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $87 4d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $15 4d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $114 4d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $15 4d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $89 4d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $14 4d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $13 4d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $26 4d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $99 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $671.87 · official $671.87 (match) · 308 history records