Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
59 0x5911…9920 crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$481 (-9%) realized −$477 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$353
other 46% −$136
sports 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 50% -11.1%
≤30d 4 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 50% -11.1%
≤90d 6 -37.0% -43.0% 33% 33% -12.3%
all 34 +32.1% +19.5% 41% 35% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.5% 35% -16.8%
10% +8.1% 26% -24.8%
15% -2.3% 24% -32.1%
20% -11.9% 18% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +92% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$83 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$477
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage234d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Japan 7¢ 6¢ $94 $90 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $131 +$127 +97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 19 $444 −$138 -31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $181 +$22 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 08 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 08 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 19 $70 −$70 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 19 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 19 $77 +$170 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 13 $100 −$88 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 13? Jan 13 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 13 $200 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 12 Jan 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 5? Jan 05 $33 −$4 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $187 −$79 -42%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 3? Jan 03 $606 −$36 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 3? Jan 03 $137 +$6 +4%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 27? Dec 27 $100 −$55 -55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 27? Dec 27 $109 −$29 -27%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-11-08? Dec 18 $737 −$737 -100%
Will Alaves win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $523 +$213 +41%
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-11-07? Nov 08 $341 +$183 +54%
Will Lille OSC win on 2025-11-06? Nov 06 $201 +$140 +70%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-11-05? Nov 06 $311 +$146 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Nov 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Nov 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? Nov 05 $199 +$112 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 7¢ $80 0m
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 6¢ $17 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $183 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $306 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $444 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $49 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $21 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $58 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $35 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $33 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $101 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $89 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $10 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $60 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $61 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $60 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $36 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $56 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $41 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $10 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $35 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $11 156d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $100 156d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 13? BUY No 0¢ $0 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.03 · official $90.03 (match) · 194 history records