Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5911…28bb other 203 markets active 5d ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (276 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$143 (-10%) realized −$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%4W / 199L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day276.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$55
14 days−$184
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$45
other 26% −$68
sports 11% −$24
tech 6% −$12
culture 4% −$6
politics 4% −$9
crypto 4% −$8
weather 1% −$7
finance 1% −$3
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (276 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -10.1% -18.7% 4% 1% -16.9%
≤30d 203 -18.2% -26.0% 2% 0% -20.7%
≤90d 203 -18.2% -26.0% 2% 0% -20.7%
all 203 -18.2% -26.0% 2% 0% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover276.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.0% 0% -20.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.1% 0% -28.3%
15% -39.5% 0% -35.2%
20% -45.5% 0% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses4 / 199
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)203 / 203
History coverage8d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day276.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 203 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $29 −$1 -3%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $3 −$1 -17%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $86 −$4 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $8 −$1 -6%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -13%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $8 −$1 -6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $36 −$2 -6%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $4 −$1 -26%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $5 −$1 -25%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 −$1 -26%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $7 −$2 -27%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $7 −$3 -37%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 11 $5 −$2 -41%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 11 $5 −$2 -40%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 11 $3 −$1 -49%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $6 −$1 -19%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 -12%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 11 $3 $0 -6%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 -14%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -21%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $3 $0 -6%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $66 −$3 -4%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 11 $3 $0 -6%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 -6%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 $0 -6%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 -7%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -9%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Jun 11 $51 −$4 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 40¢ $1 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $1 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $1 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 49¢ $1 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 31¢ $1 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 39¢ $1 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 44¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2349 history records