Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x590e…e43d
other · 29 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3,872 +64%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$920 · open −$957
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$3,439
Realized−$920
Unrealized−$957
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses8 / 51
Open positions73
Markets (closed)59 / 29
Avg bet$208
Trades / day3394.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 73 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$920
7 days−$920
14 days−$920
30 days−$920
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 53¢ 70¢ $738 $963 +$224 (+30%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 23¢ 50¢ $223 $476 +$254 (+114%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 21¢ 42¢ $217 $422 +$205 (+94%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 9¢ 26¢ $114 $336 +$222 (+194%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $94 $149 +$55 (+58%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $108 $138 +$30 (+28%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 15¢ 26¢ $72 $126 +$55 (+76%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 7¢ 18¢ $44 $108 +$64 (+146%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $72 $96 +$24 (+33%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $24 $74 +$50 (+208%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $36 $73 +$37 (+103%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $24 $63 +$39 (+160%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $124 $51 −$72 (-59%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 21¢ 4¢ $281 $50 −$231 (-82%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+23%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $14 $38 +$24 (+172%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+14%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $9 $18 +$9 (+95%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $37 $12 −$25 (-67%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $19 $11 −$8 (-42%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $45 $10 −$35 (-77%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $15 $9 −$5 (-36%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-36%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $187 −$221 -118%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$26 -578%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $52 +$133 +256%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$37 -1467%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $53 +$26 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +500%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $31 +$181 +584%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$215 +2337%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$46 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$7 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -107%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$166 +2332%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $119 −$7 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$127 +7046%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $11 +$97 +895%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $354 −$218 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$81 -5806%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$22 -9390%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -101%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$974
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 10m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 10m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 10m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 10m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 10m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 10m
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 11m
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 11m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 15m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 15m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 16m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 16m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 18m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 18m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 27m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 27m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 27m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 27m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 28m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $13 28m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 33m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +64.0% +48.3% 14% 14% -43.6%
≤30d 59 +64.0% +48.3% 14% 14% -43.6%
≤90d 59 +64.0% +48.3% 14% 14% -43.6%
all 59 +64.0% +48.3% 14% 14% -43.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3394.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +48.3% 14% -43.6%
10% ← realistic here +34.1% 14% -49.0%
15% +21.2% 14% -53.9%
20% +9.3% 12% -58.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,438.78 · official $3,441.00 (match) · 3500 history records