Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x590c…db45
weather · 1594 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$54 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$41 · open +$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$568
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1460 / 105
Open positions28
Markets (closed)1565 / 1594
History coverage84d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 28 History 1565 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$132
14 days+$130
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? No 94¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? No 94¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? No 93¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 13? No 94¢ 98¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 14? No 94¢ 98¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? No 94¢ 96¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? No 95¢ 95¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 9? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? No 95¢ 95¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? No 94¢ 95¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 13? No 97¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? No 93¢ 93¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? No 96¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? No 97¢ 97¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? No 95¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? No 96¢ 95¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 11? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 10? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$56
crypto 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $20 10m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $6 16m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $3 16m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $17 24m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $19 34m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $5 58m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $12 6h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $7 9h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $19 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $19 13h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $19 15h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $19 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $17 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $19 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $19 22h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $16 23h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $19 25h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $19 25h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $20 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 +4.5% -5.4% 100% 0% -5.4%
≤30d 577 +0.5% -9.1% 96% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 1565 +0.3% -9.2% 93% 4% -9.3%
all 1565 +0.3% -9.2% 93% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 4% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $568.22 · official $568.22 (match) · 3500 history records