Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:48:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x590a…c459 sports 271 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$69 (+2%) realized +$57 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%137W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days−$53
14 days+$36
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$2
other 3% −$14
world 2% −$3
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +23.2% +11.5% 62% 58% -19.1%
≤30d 166 -0.9% -10.3% 49% 49% -15.9%
≤90d 266 +1.9% -7.8% 52% 51% -10.4%
all 266 +1.9% -7.8% 52% 51% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 51% -10.4%
10% -16.6% 50% -19.0%
15% -24.7% 50% -26.8%
20% -32.1% 48% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses137 / 129
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions5
Markets (closed)266 / 271
History coverage39d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $10 $29 +$19 (+194%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 14¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$30 +99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $15 +$7 +47%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +91%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $15 +$10 +63%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +234%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$35 +170%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$20 +194%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $39 +$30 +78%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 10 $6 +$6 +95%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals Jun 10 $7 +$6 +84%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $13 +$17 +132%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $109 −$109 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $86 −$86 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $10 +$9 +91%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $17 +$10 +58%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 08 $14 +$10 +71%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $10 +$11 +107%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ne Jun 07 $12 +$10 +84%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $20 +$13 +62%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $19 +$17 +88%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $12 +$12 +95%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $14 −$14 -94%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 06 $12 +$10 +81%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $30 +$27 +89%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 +$39 +191%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $8 +$17 +213%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 04 $12 +$11 +91%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $15 +$15 +99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $15 +$25 +163%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ta Jun 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 03 $10 +$9 +88%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Was Jun 03 $12 +$10 +80%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $10 +$14 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $19 35m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 41m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 94¢ $22 8h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 62¢ $15 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 23¢ $5 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $25 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 82¢ $10 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $15 24h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $5 26h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 30h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 52¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 12¢ $7 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $7 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $5 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $20 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $39 5d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S BUY Yes 50¢ $6 5d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals BUY No 53¢ $7 5d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY No 58¢ $5 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 30¢ $10 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $13 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ $20 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.09 · official $115.09 (match) · 601 history records