Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:00:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5909…2215 crypto 1056 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$449 (-3%) realized −$448 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate61%771W / 492L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day73.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,558
7 days−$1,536
14 days−$1,534
30 days−$1,817
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$217
sports 0% +$103
other 0% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 354 -55.9% -60.1% 41% 1% -27.7%
≤30d 1163 -22.3% -29.7% 58% 5% -17.8%
≤90d 1263 -20.7% -28.2% 61% 5% -17.6%
all 1263 -20.7% -28.2% 61% 5% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 5% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 3% -25.5%
15% -41.4% 3% -32.7%
20% -47.1% 2% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$448
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses771 / 492
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1263 / 1056
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day73.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Down 99¢ 96¢ $50 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 297 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$8 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$10 -383%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$7 -203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$6 -203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$6 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$6 -229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$9 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$10 -204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$6 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -444%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $47 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $47 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 32¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $65 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 8h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $5 8h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $13 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $41 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $41 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $39 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.25 · official $57.88 · 3500 history records