Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5903…d02b sports 255 markets active 2d ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$27,375 (-13%) realized −$27,375 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%123W / 130L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$824per market
Trades / day41.4pace
Fees−$4,707est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4,556
14 days−$4,180
30 days−$11,811
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$25,059
crypto 2% −$3,247
other 1% −$228
politics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -11.7% -20.1% 52% 45% -16.7%
≤30d 81 -20.7% -28.3% 47% 40% -25.2%
≤90d 253 -5.8% -14.8% 49% 41% -21.6%
all 253 -5.8% -14.8% 49% 41% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 41% -21.6%
10% -23.0% 33% -29.1%
15% ← realistic here -30.4% 26% -36.0%
20% -37.2% 20% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$975) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$398 vs −$596 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27,375
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses123 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$4,707
Open positions0
Markets (closed)253 / 255
History coverage65d
Avg bet$824
Trades / day41.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 253 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,146 −$2,066 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $614 −$548 -89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3,423 −$685 -20%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $131 −$128 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $313 −$313 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3,471 +$107 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $335 +$33 +10%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,383 +$1,029 +43%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $318 −$314 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $120 −$76 -63%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,869 +$989 +34%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $107 +$80 +74%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $589 −$175 -30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $190 +$88 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $380 +$283 +75%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $840 +$440 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,611 −$2,611 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,841 +$762 +41%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $53 +$19 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $279 −$274 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,869 +$242 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $450 −$450 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,405 −$103 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$13 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,698 +$703 +41%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $207 −$158 -76%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $553 −$495 -90%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $220 +$299 +136%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,954 +$51 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $68 +$338 +500%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1,513 +$361 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $44 +$14 +33%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,035 +$543 +52%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $315 −$315 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $600 −$600 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $122 +$140 +114%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $270 +$27 +10%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $164 −$161 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2,051 +$129 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $390 −$364 -93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $90 +$134 +150%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $79 −$79 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $314 +$134 +43%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $18 −$18 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,185 +$196 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $80 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $66 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $2,146 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $614 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 15¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $340 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $2,366 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $2,471 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $146 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $29 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $120 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $150 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $34 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $148 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $239 2d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 25¢ $131 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 20¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 19¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $3,579 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 96¢ $2,130 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2855 history records