Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
59 0x5901…9456 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$91 (+9%) realized +$76 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$69
14 days+$63
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$103
sports 5% +$6
crypto 1% −$10
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 50% +13.1%
≤30d 20 -16.5% -24.5% 50% 50% +4.2%
≤90d 20 -16.5% -24.5% 50% 50% +4.2%
all 20 -16.5% -24.5% 50% 50% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 50% +4.2%
10% -31.7% 40% -5.7%
15% -38.3% 40% -14.8%
20% -44.4% 25% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$532
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions23
Markets (closed)20 / 43
History coverage18d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-6%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 81¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 87¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+67%)
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 21¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $179 +$71 +40%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +113%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +96%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $138 +$30 +22%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $1 $0 +12%
Spread: Albania (-2.5) Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Albania (-1.5) Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $102 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $52 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 10d
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 10d
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 10d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 10d
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 10d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 10d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 10d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 10d
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 10d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 10d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 10d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 10d
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 10d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $532.36 · official $532.37 (match) · 86 history records