Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58ff…2b2e other 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$37 (-2%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%23W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$69
14 days−$69
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$142
sports 8% +$76
crypto 7% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.6% +8.2% 67% 56% -19.0%
≤30d 14 -8.8% -17.5% 43% 36% -24.4%
≤90d 57 -2.3% -11.6% 40% 39% -15.7%
all 57 -2.3% -11.6% 40% 39% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 39% -15.7%
10% -20.1% 37% -23.8%
15% -27.8% 35% -31.1%
20% -34.9% 32% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$22 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses23 / 34
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage57d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-16? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-05-16? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $142 −$75 -52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $78 +$5 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 +$42 +114%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $114 −$77 -68%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $73 +$41 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $47 +$25 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $122 −$74 -61%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $39 +$43 +109%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $21 −$17 -78%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $85 −$12 -14%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $110 −$108 -98%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $54 +$57 +105%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 14 $27 +$27 +101%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $94 −$68 -72%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $13 −$4 -29%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $191 −$106 -56%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 13 $12 −$1 -11%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $112 +$117 +105%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 12 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $148 +$35 +24%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $31 −$21 -69%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $23 −$11 -46%
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF América end in a draw? May 11 $14 +$8 +57%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $47 +$68 +144%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $31 +$16 +52%
Will CD Guadalajara vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw? May 10 $16 +$6 +37%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $17 −$8 -46%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-05-10? May 08 $17 −$2 -9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $17 +$17 +101%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 05 $58 −$41 -70%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $24 +$16 +67%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $6 −$6 -90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $7 +$5 +67%
Will CF América win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $5 −$2 -50%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $7 +$3 +41%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-04-22? Apr 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Mazatlán FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw? Apr 23 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Club Santos Laguna win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $5 −$3 -67%
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $5 −$2 -46%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $18 −$17 -97%
Will CF América win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $8 +$19 +237%
Will Club Puebla win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Club León FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $5 −$3 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 19m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 21m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 44m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 45m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $59 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 34¢ $59 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $83 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $78 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $37 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 19¢ $37 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $114 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $73 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $47 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 24¢ $48 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $39 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $82 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $39 2d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 15d
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 28d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 31¢ $23 29d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 29¢ $23 29d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 30¢ $24 29d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $24 29d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $110 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.80 · official $9.80 (match) · 129 history records