Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58fe…77dd crypto 96 markets active 21h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$55 (-16%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate28%27W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$10
crypto 26% −$12
other 18% −$31
politics 10% +$1
world 5% −$14
culture 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -54.6% -58.9% 18% 12% -64.2%
≤30d 40 -33.2% -39.5% 15% 12% -56.3%
≤90d 95 -22.7% -30.0% 28% 19% -28.7%
all 95 -22.7% -30.0% 28% 19% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 19% -28.7%
10% -36.7% 17% -35.5%
15% -42.8% 13% -41.7%
20% -48.4% 9% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses27 / 68
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage34d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +162%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +27%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $7 −$7 -92%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $25 −$11 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) May 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 20 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 20 $10 −$1 -7%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Trump say "China" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic May 20 $2 +$25 +1202%
Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury May 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi May 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 15 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene May 15 $6 −$4 -67%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this May 15 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 15 $1 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 21h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 21h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 22h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down $1 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.21 · official $3.21 (match) · 256 history records