Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:49:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

58
0x58fd…43a6
other · 83 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$358 -51%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$367 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$51
Realized−$367
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses67 / 440
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions54
Markets (closed)507 / 83
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day651.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 54 History 507 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$465
7 days−$367
14 days−$367
30 days−$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+50%)
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Comcast close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Jack Lowdon announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Theo James announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Misti Cordell be the Republican nominee for LA-05? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+950%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Marcel Ciolacu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Austin Beutner win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Stripe’s market cap be between $120B and $140B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Oh My God win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Jurgen Klopp be the next manager of Manchester City FC? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on January 24? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Malena Adrada be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 To Jun 12 $0 $0 +238%
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the New Orleans Saints be the Top Defense/Special Teams of the 20 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Cloud 9" by Megan Moroney be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John Piper be the Republican nominee for IN-04? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 26-1? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $3,600 on the final trading day of January Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 11 Jun 12 $0 +$1 +286%
Will Mario Enrique Severich win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial elec Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,500 on the final trading day of January Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on January 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 19? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on January 20? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 26-1? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hallow: Prayer & Meditation be #2 Free App in the US Apple App St Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the March meetin Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 K Jun 12 $0 $0 +13341%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash ra Jun 12 $0 +$1 +133%
Will Tetairoa McMillan be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Ye Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hallow: Prayer & Meditation be #1 Free App in the US Apple App St Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Joe Biden be the #2 searched person on Google this year? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Peter Hegseth be the first substitute White House Press Secretary Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders be the Top Defense/Special Teams of the 202 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Player 58 win Beast Games: Season 2? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jeff Bezos be 2nd richest person on March 31? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Clemson be the #1 overall seed in the 2025-26 College Football Pl Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cooper McLeod (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bulira Frank Kabinga win the 2026 Ugandan presidential election? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 55 million views on day 1 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.20 on January 29? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 6? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 12-18? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -67%
Will Solana reach $170 in January? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.10 February 23-March 1? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 January 12-18? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,700 and $3,800 on January 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on February 14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Atlantic Division? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kirk Cousins play for Tennessee Titans in 2026-27? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 14? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +550%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the February meeting? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 30? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Boris Molina Acevedo win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential electi Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will TheDev win the Defi App trading competition? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 75% +$137
other 14% +$6
politics 8% +$6
tech 2% +$4
sports 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? SELL No 0¢ $6 45m
Jack Lowdon announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will John M. O’Connor be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oklahoma SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will John M. O’Connor be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oklahoma BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Jack Lowdon announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Jack Lowdon announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Theo James announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Beckham Edwards be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 507 -9.4% -18.0% 13% 13% -34.7%
≤30d 507 -9.4% -18.0% 13% 13% -34.7%
≤90d 507 -9.4% -18.0% 13% 13% -34.7%
all 507 -9.4% -18.0% 13% 13% -34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover651.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 13% -34.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 12% -40.9%
15% -33.1% 12% -46.6%
20% -39.6% 11% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.01 · official $51.01 (match) · 3500 history records