Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:07:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x58fc…442c crypto 690 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$112 (+2%) realized +$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%329W / 361L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$102
14 days+$102
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +79.3% +62.3% 79% 79% +54.3%
≤30d 28 +79.3% +62.3% 79% 79% +54.3%
≤90d 28 +79.3% +62.3% 79% 79% +54.3%
all 690 +1.8% -7.9% 48% 48% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 48% -8.7%
10% -16.7% 47% -17.4%
15% -24.7% 47% -25.4%
20% -32.1% 47% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses329 / 361
Open positions0
Markets (closed)690 / 690
History coverage138d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 690 Trades
no open positions (155 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +114%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +89%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +89%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +89%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$6 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$6 +101%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$6 +105%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$9 +296%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$7 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$11 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$8 +373%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +119%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 27 $6 −$6 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 27 $11 −$11 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 27 $3 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 27 $5 −$4 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 26 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 108d
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 108d
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 108d
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 108d
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 108d
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 108d
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 108d
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 108d
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 108d
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 108d
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1539 history records