Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:54:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x58fa…5a5a other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 857d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$290 (-1%) realized −$284 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%42W / 60L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$744now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$232
7 days+$228
14 days+$1,621
30 days+$1,332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$1,150
sports 23% +$299
crypto 17% −$1,166
finance 15% +$678
politics 7% −$26
tech 3% +$1,046
world 2% −$4
economics 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.3% -0.2% 50% 50% +30.7%
≤30d 8 +56.5% +41.6% 62% 62% +66.1%
≤90d 18 +6.4% -3.7% 33% 33% -8.3%
all 102 -5.6% -14.6% 41% 31% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 31% -10.2%
10% -22.7% 25% -18.8%
15% -30.2% 24% -26.7%
20% -37.0% 21% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$110 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

857d coverage
Net worth$744
Realized−$284
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses42 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage857d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance Mexico 63¢ 62¢ $700 $694 −$6 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 27¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $304 +$232 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 +$57 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? Jun 24 $122 −$34 -28%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $294 +$300 +102%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $299 +$1,093 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $354 −$349 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $139 +$61 +43%
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? May 12 $205 −$80 -39%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? May 12 $857 −$483 -56%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $102 +$397 +388%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Apr 21 $56 −$53 -93%
Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March Apr 21 $128 −$38 -29%
Will Solana dip to $140 November 3-9? Apr 21 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Solana dip to $130 November 3-9? Apr 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? Apr 21 $440 −$415 -94%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Mar 03 $288 +$175 +61%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $55 −$24 -43%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Jan 15 $36 −$6 -17%
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? Jan 06 $3,315 +$716 +22%
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 06 $235 −$28 -12%
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 06 $494 +$86 +18%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $300 +$19 +6%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 30 $20 −$16 -82%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 30 $666 −$666 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $493 −$180 -36%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Dec 25 $93 −$9 -10%
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Dec 25 $161 −$5 -3%
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 25 $73 −$17 -23%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 25 $202 −$72 -36%
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? Dec 17 $126 +$11 +9%
Vikings vs. Cowboys Dec 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 11 $66 +$132 +200%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Dec 11 $120 +$703 +586%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 11 $41 +$37 +89%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Nov 04 $228 +$440 +193%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Oct 23 $138 +$26 +19%
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? Sep 11 $100 −$83 -83%
Will Paxos win the USDH ticker? Sep 11 $1,289 −$1,126 -87%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Sep 05 $1,000 +$408 +41%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 20 $294 −$294 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $254 −$254 -100%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 12 $100 +$194 +194%
Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley Jun 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Champions League: Inter Milan vs. Barcelona (To Advance) Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $51 1h
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance BUY Mexico 63¢ $708 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $27 4d
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $30 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $304 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $61 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $244 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $95 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $205 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $354 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $139 17d
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $58 47d
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $126 47d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $374 47d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $499 49d
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 50d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 20¢ $102 50d
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $122 50d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 47¢ $508 57d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 68d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? BUY Yes 22¢ $440 68d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 68d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? BUY Yes 6¢ $53 68d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $463 117d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL No 6¢ $32 118d
Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March BUY Yes 2¢ $6 118d
Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March SELL Yes 6¢ $60 148d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY No 11¢ $55 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $743.52 · official $743.52 (match) · 430 history records