Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:30:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58f3…4956 world 87 markets active 6d ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$299 (-12%) realized −$229 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%21W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$129
other 31% +$8
politics 21% +$22
economics 5% +$2
sports 4% −$105
culture 3% −$10
tech 2% −$42
finance 1% −$20
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -28.1% -34.9% 50% 50% +2.3%
≤30d 4 -23.3% -30.6% 25% 25% -3.8%
≤90d 22 -13.6% -21.8% 41% 41% -25.7%
all 68 -24.6% -31.7% 31% 31% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 31% -19.2%
10% -38.3% 29% -27.0%
15% -44.2% 22% -34.0%
20% -49.7% 18% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$19 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$229
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses21 / 47
Open positions19
Markets (closed)68 / 87
History coverage307d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+36%)
Databricks IPO before 2027? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 42¢ 44¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 13¢ 24¢ $8 $15 +$7 (+82%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-32%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-71%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 57¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 39¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 38¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 28¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 48¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 38¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $40 +$17 +42%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? May 22 $5 −$1 -25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? May 21 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 −$9 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 12 $31 +$35 +114%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? May 07 $50 −$12 -24%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? May 07 $4 +$1 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 07 $9 +$9 +96%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 07 $15 +$8 +53%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 06 $30 +$10 +33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $3 +$6 +203%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 07 $98 −$23 -23%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 05 $19 +$6 +31%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Apr 02 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $81 −$81 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Mar 20 $75 +$61 +82%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 15 $28 −$25 -86%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Mar 13 $80 +$68 +85%
Another Canada election called by June 30? Mar 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30? Mar 11 $70 −$53 -75%
US recession by end of 2026? Mar 05 $29 −$5 -16%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 05 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? Mar 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $65 +$32 +50%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the Febru Feb 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)? Feb 12 $18 −$8 -46%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? Feb 12 $20 −$13 -66%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 05 $20 −$5 -25%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jan 14 $35 +$45 +129%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 08 $50 $0 -1%
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025? Jan 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jan 03 $100 +$170 +170%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Jan 02 $20 −$20 -100%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Jan 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? Jan 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31? Jan 02 $40 +$89 +223%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 11 $50 −$42 -83%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $122 −$16 -13%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 26 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Nov 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 26 $30 +$8 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 46¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $15 6d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 20d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 20d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 20d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $15 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $15 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $20 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 64¢ $10 20d
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 26d
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 22¢ $9 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $35 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 66¢ $42 27d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL No 0¢ $0 33d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL No 1¢ $0 33d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 34d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 34d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 57¢ $5 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $10 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $35 34d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 48¢ $10 34d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 22¢ $2 34d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 26¢ $5 34d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 22¢ $1 34d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 22¢ $1 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 90¢ $66 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.13 · official $184.13 (match) · 370 history records