Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58f3…315f crypto 1354 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (139 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,248 (-37%) realized −$2,248 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate53%717W / 637L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day138.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$12
weather 23% −$153
other 5% −$12
sports 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (139 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 471 -34.9% -41.1% 31% 10% -22.1%
≤30d 1354 -11.8% -20.2% 53% 14% -12.1%
≤90d 1354 -11.8% -20.2% 53% 14% -12.1%
all 1354 -11.8% -20.2% 53% 14% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover138.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 14% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 10% -20.5%
15% -34.8% 10% -28.2%
20% -41.2% 9% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,248
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses717 / 637
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1354 / 1354
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day138.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1354 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$123 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$9 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -41%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $9 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -48%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $90 −$13 -15%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? Jun 19 $144 −$58 -41%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $121 −$16 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $14 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 19 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? Jun 19 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on June 20? Jun 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20? Jun 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 20? Jun 19 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? Jun 19 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? SELL Yes 54¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? SELL No 63¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 64¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 20? SELL No 64¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 20? BUY No 64¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 65¢ $7 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 65¢ $7 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? SELL No 29¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 52¢ $1 3h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $77 4h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $90 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 55¢ $1 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 56¢ $1 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? SELL No 16¢ $15 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 13¢ $12 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? SELL Yes 83¢ $92 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? SELL Yes 60¢ $70 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY Yes 83¢ $37 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY Yes 83¢ $24 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 83¢ $39 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records