Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
58 0x58f2…692e sports 855 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,607 (-9%) realized −$2,607 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%440W / 410L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$115
14 days+$775
30 days+$775
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,204
other 6% +$349
crypto 0% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -5.4% -14.4% 52% 52% -0.3%
≤30d 60 +45.1% +31.2% 75% 75% +20.7%
≤90d 694 -4.3% -13.4% 49% 49% -11.7%
all 850 -4.2% -13.3% 52% 52% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 52% -12.5%
10% -21.6% 51% -20.9%
15% -29.2% 45% -28.5%
20% -36.1% 34% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$27 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$2,607
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses440 / 410
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions5
Markets (closed)850 / 855
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 850 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $65 $66 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 61¢ 62¢ $61 $62 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 59¢ 60¢ $59 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $23 $20 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $72 +$28 +40%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $24 +$76 +325%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 −$24 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $52 +$48 +93%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$24 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $68 +$72 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $70 +$20 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $70 +$40 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $70 −$69 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $43 +$57 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $75 +$55 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $73 +$27 +38%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$76 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$29 +42%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $87 +$13 +14%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $56 +$14 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $53 +$7 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$9 +17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $49 +$111 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $48 +$52 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $38 +$62 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $43 +$57 +134%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$29 +42%
Barletta: Lukas Neumayer vs Toby Samuel Jun 11 $0 $0 +109%
Monza: Michele Ribecai vs Billy Harris Jun 11 $0 $0 +146%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs Arcade Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leagu Jun 11 $3 +$2 +62%
Counter-Strike: EMPIRE vs FarmVille (BO3) - Dust2.us Eagle Masters Gro Jun 11 $4 +$3 +65%
Madrid: Federico Cina vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 11 $4 +$4 +101%
Monza: Maks Kasnikowski vs Luca Van Assche Jun 11 $15 +$5 +34%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jakub Mensik vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 11 $20 +$6 +29%
Wuning: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Omar Jasika Jun 11 $24 +$10 +43%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Jun 11 $25 +$14 +57%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 11 $25 +$16 +65%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Terence Atmane vs Ethan Quinn Jun 11 $20 +$22 +109%
Madrid: Calvin Hemery vs Alex Martinez Jun 11 $20 +$23 +112%
Monza: Guy Den Ouden vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 11 $20 +$23 +119%
Madrid: Nerman Fatic vs Pol Martin Tiffon Jun 11 $20 +$24 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 59¢ $60 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 61¢ $62 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $72 24h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 24h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 32h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 32h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $52 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $70 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $68 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $70 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $70 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $69 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $73 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $87 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $51 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $53 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.50 · official $271.50 (match) · 3500 history records