Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
58 0x58f2…37fd other 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$287 (-0%) realized −$286 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%21W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$819per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$21
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$61
other 37% −$130
sports 9% −$93
economics 5% −$7
world 2% −$16
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -11.1% -19.6% 7% 3% -10.3%
all 132 -2.8% -12.1% 16% 11% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 11% -9.8%
10% -20.5% 11% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 8% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,254) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$9 · ×3.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,161
Realized−$286
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses21 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)132 / 134
History coverage123d
Avg bet$819
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $688 $688 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $474 $474 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $1,143 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,423 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,257 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,137 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,501 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,707 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2,012 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,205 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 04 $312 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 04 $434 $0 +0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $498 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $428 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,974 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $2,313 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $3,679 −$5 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,247 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,278 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $1,286 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,455 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,238 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $1,145 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 02 $562 +$1 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,389 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,703 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,296 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,294 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,334 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,124 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,403 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,112 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,234 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $756 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $474 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $688 26h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,141 4d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,143 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,144 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,146 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,144 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,146 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,274 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,276 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,255 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,257 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,242 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,244 11d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,136 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,137 12d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $972 12d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $973 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $989 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $990 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,203 14d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,205 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $495 18d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $495 18d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $522 20d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $523 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $536 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $537 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,161.43 · official $1,161.43 (match) · 437 history records