Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58f1…7032 crypto 1724 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,426 (-17%) realized −$5,588 · open +$162
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate70%1417W / 612L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,057now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$588
sports 36% +$559
other 6% +$214
weather 5% −$89
politics 2% −$256
economics 0% −$24
world 0% −$22
tech 0% −$55
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 659 -45.4% -50.6% 40% 21% -73.6%
≤30d 1339 -20.2% -27.8% 68% 20% -51.6%
≤90d 2029 -13.0% -21.3% 70% 27% -43.0%
all 2029 -13.0% -21.3% 70% 27% -43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 27% -43.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 15% -48.5%
15% -35.7% 11% -53.4%
20% -42.0% 8% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$37 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$1,057
Realized−$5,588
Unrealized+$162
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1417 / 612
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions8
Markets (closed)2029 / 1724
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 2029 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Execration 70¢ 77¢ $735 $808 +$74 (+10%)
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Execration 30¢ 68¢ $100 $226 +$126 (+126%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 30¢ 32¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 16¢ 5¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-67%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-74%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $1,299 −$1,299 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Kukuys (BO3) Jun 22 $160 −$160 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $273 −$273 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Suns vs. Knicks Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 4PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bucks vs. Hornets Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $214 −$214 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO3) Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Veroja vs yache123 (BO3) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 70¢ $735 28m
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 30¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 30¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 30¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 29¢ $21 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 31¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 31¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 31¢ $33 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 31¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 30¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 21¢ $152 13h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 19¢ $16 13h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 53¢ $87 14h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 53¢ $12 14h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 53¢ $12 14h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 53¢ $3 14h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 53¢ $3 14h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 53¢ $8 14h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 53¢ $50 14h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 53¢ $20 14h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 53¢ $5 14h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 53¢ $2 14h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 53¢ $3 14h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 53¢ $3 14h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 53¢ $4 14h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 50¢ $3 17h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 50¢ $19 17h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 50¢ $3 17h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 50¢ $6 17h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 50¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,056.69 · official $1,086.69 · 3500 history records