Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:11:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58e6…ea94 crypto 440 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$102 (-0%) realized −$78 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%396W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days+$3
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$18
world 16% −$32
other 5% −$8
sports 3% +$7
economics 2% −$1
politics 2% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.5% -9.9% 21% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 41 -1.7% -11.1% 12% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 437 +0.4% -9.2% 91% 0% -9.7%
all 437 +0.4% -9.2% 91% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses396 / 41
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)437 / 440
History coverage83d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 437 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 65¢ 39¢ $58 $35 −$23 (-40%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-39%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 55¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $700 −$1 -0%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 18 $162 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 17 $251 +$2 +1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $89 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $88 −$3 -3%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 16 $311 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $807 −$5 -1%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $151 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $180 +$2 +1%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $56 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $128 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $481 +$30 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $391 −$25 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 13 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $68 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $270 +$16 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 10 $101 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $97 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 09 $135 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $164 $0 -0%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 07 $135 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $144 −$3 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $256 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 02 $117 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $32 −$8 -25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 02 $34 −$7 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 01 $154 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $385 −$16 -4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 28 $438 −$41 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $32 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $30 $0 -0%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 22 $418 −$8 -2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 21 $136 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $132 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 01 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 01 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5AM ET May 01 $50 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 10AM ET May 01 $50 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 7AM ET May 01 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 27 $26 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 27 $28 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 27 $41 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 27 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $90 40m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $2 43m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $1 44m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $1 54m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $1 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $24 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $8 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $129 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 31¢ $57 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $145 3h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $152 6h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 82¢ $162 11h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 81¢ $162 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $145 13h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $152 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $120 16h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $58 16h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $128 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $131 19h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL Yes 54¢ $25 34h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL Yes 49¢ $63 35h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL Yes 49¢ $14 35h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL Yes 49¢ $49 35h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $89 43h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 37¢ $0 45h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 38¢ $3 45h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $149 46h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 38¢ $4 46h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 38¢ $11 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.91 · official $36.79 (match) · 1107 history records