Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:22:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58e4…73f9 sports 1231 markets active 2h ago coverage 218d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 218d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,877 (-5%) realized −$9,877 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%574W / 657L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$1,545est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 218d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$18,112
other 14% +$3,344
crypto 0% −$234
world 0% +$11
culture 0% −$149
politics 0% −$6
tech 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -13.4% -21.7% 54% 54% -23.0%
≤30d 27 -15.5% -23.5% 52% 52% -14.4%
≤90d 357 -46.1% -51.2% 30% 26% -23.9%
all 1231 -8.2% -16.9% 47% 43% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 43% -16.3%
10% -24.9% 39% -24.3%
15% -32.1% 32% -31.6%
20% -38.8% 24% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$108 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,877
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses574 / 657
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,545
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1231 / 1231
History coverage218d ⚠
Avg bet$167
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1231 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $4,278 −$4,252 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $1,009 −$759 -75%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $2,215 +$606 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $1,157 +$262 +23%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,654 +$525 +14%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu Jun 20 $514 −$500 -97%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $2,445 +$1,718 +70%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $1,719 −$1,700 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $1,017 +$1,125 +111%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $1,113 −$1,100 -99%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $510 +$593 +116%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $911 +$563 +62%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $116 −$115 -99%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $2,710 +$355 +13%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $254 −$250 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $756 +$212 +28%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $203 −$200 -98%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel Jun 08 $891 +$1,191 +134%
Cattolica: Andrea Guerrieri vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 08 $652 −$650 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $353 −$350 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2,003 +$873 +44%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 07 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane May 25 $1,992 +$1,027 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka May 25 $1,165 −$1,150 -99%
Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $101 +$42 +41%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $814 +$1,186 +146%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 22 $1,065 −$1,050 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Marina Bass May 22 $43 −$42 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann May 21 $1,996 +$1,043 +52%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Tomas Barrios May 20 $33 +$18 +56%
Hamburg European Open: Ugo Humbert vs Karen Khachanov May 20 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $190 −$186 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $1,317 +$161 +12%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $1,015 +$1,026 +101%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 18 $1,005 −$990 -98%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $21 −$3 -14%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 16 $27 −$20 -73%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $2,016 +$1,008 +50%
Parma: Susan Bandecchi vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 14 $858 +$198 +23%
Bordeaux: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Quentin Halys May 14 $253 −$197 -78%
Bordeaux: Luca Van Assche vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 13 $1,462 +$551 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 12 $105 −$17 -16%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $946 +$535 +56%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Martin Landaluce May 12 $967 −$952 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $170 $0 +0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $203 +$101 +50%
Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Michael Zheng May 11 $103 −$21 -21%
Tunis: Maxim Mrva vs Federico Cina May 11 $269 +$122 +45%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fok May 11 $502 +$263 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 80¢ $4,278 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 76¢ $241 11h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $1,009 13h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 78¢ $2,215 14h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw SELL Murtazali Magomedov 100¢ $1,418 15h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 81¢ $1,157 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $4,179 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $3,654 20h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 10¢ $514 21h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 58¢ $2,445 2d
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur 62¢ $1,719 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 90¢ $2,065 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 90¢ $78 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 42¢ $1,017 3d
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 62¢ $1,113 3d
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez SELL Juan Sebastian Gomez 73¢ $1,103 5d
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 33¢ $510 5d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Denis Shapovalov 100¢ $1,474 5d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 61¢ $911 5d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 61¢ $116 6d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard SELL Daniil Medvedev 100¢ $3,065 9d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 88¢ $2,710 9d
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Zhizhen Zhang 42¢ $254 9d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 92¢ $0 9d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 93¢ $870 9d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 93¢ $93 9d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 93¢ $6 9d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 72¢ $756 9d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 46¢ $203 9d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini BUY Andrea Collarini 36¢ $61 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3433 history records