Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:11:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58e2…a1c7 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized −$9 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% +$27
crypto 26% −$28
other 23% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +85.1% +67.5% 100% 100% +58.2%
≤30d 2 +85.1% +67.5% 100% 100% +58.2%
≤90d 23 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 30% -10.5%
all 27 -1.5% -10.9% 56% 26% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 26% -8.9%
10% -19.4% 26% -17.6%
15% -27.2% 15% -25.6%
20% -34.3% 15% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 34
History coverage128d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $179 $178 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 96¢ $30 $48 +$18 (+59%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 +$2 +31%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$6 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 13 Apr 14 $90 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on Apr Apr 13 $95 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 31 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 31 $4 −$3 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 30? Mar 31 $52 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 28? Mar 29 $74 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 28 $15 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 28 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 28 $50 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 28 $53 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 28 $21 −$15 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 28 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 27 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 27 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 27 $4 +$12 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 27 $25 +$22 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 9? Mar 27 $53 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 9? Mar 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Ma Mar 09 $84 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 48°F or higher on February Feb 15 $104 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Fe Feb 12 $99 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 37¢ $36 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $52 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 56¢ $20 46h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 8¢ $10 46h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 13 BUY Yes 96¢ $76 66d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 13 BUY Yes 95¢ $14 66d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on Apr SELL No 92¢ $82 66d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on Apr SELL No 92¢ $10 66d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on Apr BUY No 95¢ $95 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 79d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $12 81d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $24 81d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $16 81d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 28? BUY Yes 93¢ $74 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.12 · official $354.12 · 92 history records