Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:29:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58e1…68ed crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$383 (+4%) realized +$569 · open −$186
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate68%19W / 9L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day68.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$910
other 10% +$307
sports 8% +$172
culture 1% +$4
weather 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -5.6% -14.6% 68% 43% -10.6%
≤30d 28 -5.6% -14.6% 68% 43% -10.6%
≤90d 28 -5.6% -14.6% 68% 43% -10.6%
all 28 -5.6% -14.6% 68% 43% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 43% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 29% -19.1%
15% -30.2% 14% -26.9%
20% -37.1% 14% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$184 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$335
Realized+$569
Unrealized−$186
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses19 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day68.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $321 $128 −$193 (-60%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $301 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $327 −$14 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $104 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $128 +$36 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $671 −$508 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $332 −$332 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $507 +$58 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 26 $308 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $201 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $101 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $408 +$141 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $308 +$187 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $231 +$132 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $614 −$600 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $705 +$87 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $457 +$116 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $658 +$130 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $704 +$172 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $399 +$270 +68%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 25 $105 −$46 -44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $366 +$34 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$11 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $135 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $231 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.40 · official $334.89 (match) · 114 history records