Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58e0…c67c sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$18 (-20%) realized −$12 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$3
sports 33% −$10
crypto 6% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -30.4% -37.1% 0% 0% -35.2%
≤30d 15 -30.4% -37.1% 0% 0% -35.2%
≤90d 15 -30.4% -37.1% 0% 0% -35.2%
all 15 -30.4% -37.1% 0% 0% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.1% 0% -35.2%
10% ← realistic here -43.1% 0% -41.4%
15% -48.6% 0% -47.1%
20% -53.6% 0% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-12%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Over 7¢ 2¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-79%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Trump say "Stage" during UFC 250? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Trump say "Strong" during UFC 250? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -92%
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -92%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -7%
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "Miami" during UFC 250? Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 50m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 55m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 59m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $10 59m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will Trump say "Stage" during UFC 250? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Trump say "Strong" during UFC 250? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 BUY Over 7¢ $4 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 32¢ $3 1h
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 1h
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 1h
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say "Miami" during UFC 250? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Trump say "Strong" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 1h
Will Trump say "Stage" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.89 · official $23.89 (match) · 38 history records