Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:07:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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58 0x58e0…0339 crypto 1174 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$377 (-10%) realized −$376 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate54%636W / 538L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$20
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$70
sports 11% −$74
weather 2% −$36
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -28.1% -35.0% 16% 16% -23.6%
≤30d 186 -9.1% -17.7% 52% 46% -18.1%
≤90d 1174 -10.6% -19.1% 54% 34% -13.9%
all 1174 -10.6% -19.1% 54% 34% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 34% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 27% -22.1%
15% -33.9% 22% -29.6%
20% -40.4% 18% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$376
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses636 / 538
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1174 / 1174
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$10 +625%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$19 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +110%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +140%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$9 +398%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$21 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 35h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 36h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 36h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $10 43h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 45h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 45h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 45h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $20 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 47h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.35 (match) · 3500 history records