Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:20:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58df…8a7d crypto 388 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22,538 (-43%) realized −$22,553 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%185W / 199L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day35.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 86d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,941
sports 0% +$39
finance 0% $0
other 0% −$6
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +12.2% +1.5% 53% 47% -8.6%
≤30d 143 -7.4% -16.2% 46% 42% -35.0%
≤90d 384 -3.2% -12.4% 48% 46% -16.3%
all 384 -3.2% -12.4% 48% 46% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 46% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 45% -24.3%
15% -28.4% 45% -31.6%
20% -35.5% 45% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$141 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$22,553
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses185 / 199
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)384 / 388
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$135
Trades / day35.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 50¢ 80¢ $25 $40 +$15 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$27 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$25 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$27 +119%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$23 +458%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$27 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$28 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$26 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$25 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$10 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$20 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$23 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$26 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$26 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$26 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $23 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $22 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $23 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $25 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $23 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.25 · official $32.75 · 3500 history records