Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:48:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58dd…d3a1 other 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate63%27W / 16L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$6
other 17% +$2
politics 8% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.2% -13.3% 40% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 11 -1.1% -10.5% 55% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 11 -1.1% -10.5% 55% 0% -8.6%
all 43 -4.3% -13.4% 63% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 0% -8.9%
10% -21.7% 0% -17.6%
15% -29.3% 0% -25.5%
20% -36.2% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses27 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage469d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $19 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $85 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $101 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $19 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $5 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $116 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $142 +$5 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $8 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $5 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 22 $8 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 16 $8 $0 +2%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on May 9? May 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 16? Mar 17 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? Mar 16 $16 $0 -1%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $14 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 15 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14? Mar 14 $16 $0 +1%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 26m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $19 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $19 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $49 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $16 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $20 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $36 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $54 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.64 · official $14.64 (match) · 149 history records