Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
58 0x58d7…17e1 sports 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$731 (+7%) realized +$831 · open −$100
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate63%161W / 95L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$737now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$867
other 31% −$41
crypto 5% +$1
economics 1% −$99
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 -50.0% -54.7% 50% 0% -15.9%
≤90d 3 -7.1% -16.0% 67% 33% -15.7%
all 256 -4.7% -13.8% 63% 48% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 48% -1.5%
10% -22.0% 39% -11.0%
15% -29.6% 34% -19.6%
20% -36.5% 26% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.05 per $1 lost it wins $4.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$737
Realized+$831
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses161 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)256 / 260
History coverage589d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: FORZE Esports (-1.5) vs Cyber Hero (+1.5) Cyber Hero 100¢ 100¢ $315 $314 −$1 (-0%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sharper Esport (-3.5) vs Fancy United (+3.5) Sharper Esport 100¢ 100¢ $250 $249 −$1 (-0%)
Game Handicap: Omnix (-1.5) vs Aura Farmers (+1.5) Omnix 100¢ 100¢ $142 $142 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $132 $33 −$99 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $704 +$1 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pl Mar 22 $2 +$2 +79%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 28 $5 +$3 +64%
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs WATERMELON (+1.5) Feb 28 $18 $0 +1%
Hornets vs. Bulls Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Pegul Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Feb 21 $1 $0 +41%
Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Botic van de Zandschulp Feb 21 $2 $0 +16%
Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan Jan 27 $2 $0 +22%
Nets vs. Knicks Jan 22 $20 +$4 +20%
Mavericks vs. Knicks Jan 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Suns vs. Heat Jan 19 $2 +$2 +96%
Nets vs. Bulls Jan 19 $3 +$1 +45%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs 3DMAX (BO1) Jan 13 $1 $0 +12%
Lakers vs. Suns Jan 13 $1 +$1 +92%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 25 $35 $0 +0%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Nov 17 $91 +$53 +59%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $67 +$24 +35%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur Nov 15 $62 +$5 +8%
Will Germany win on 2025-11-14? Nov 15 $57 +$6 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 03 $35 $0 +0%
Bautista vs. Nurmagomedov Oct 26 $30 +$5 +16%
Canadiens vs. Oilers Oct 24 $4 +$2 +52%
Erste Bank Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexander Zverev Oct 24 $18 +$6 +32%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-23? Oct 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 13? Oct 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 07 $50 $0 +0%
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? Sep 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 02 $50 $0 +0%
Wimbledon: De Minaur vs. Djokovic Aug 20 $1 $0 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 07 $49 $0 +0%
Mallorca Championships: Shelton vs. Tien Jun 25 $971 +$57 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Mensik vs. Opelka Jun 25 $220 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea beat Esperance Sportive? Jun 25 $590 +$1 +0%
Will Esperance Sportive vs. Chelsea end in a draw? Jun 25 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Auckland City beat Boca Juniors? Jun 25 $1,188 +$3 +0%
Will Seattle Sounders beat PSG? Jun 24 $570 +$1 +0%
Will PSG beat Seattle Sounders? Jun 24 $646 +$13 +2%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 23 $1,179 +$36 +3%
Oilers vs. Panthers Jun 13 $12 +$16 +133%
Padres vs. Giants Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Reds vs. Cubs Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Panthers vs. Oilers Jun 09 $1 +$1 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $113K on June 3? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: Omnix (-1.5) vs Aura Farmers (+1.5) BUY Omnix 100¢ $142 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sharper Esport (-3.5) vs Fancy United (+3.5) BUY Sharper Esport 100¢ $250 1h
Game Handicap: FORZE Esports (-1.5) vs Cyber Hero (+1.5) BUY Cyber Hero 100¢ $315 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY INFURITY Gaming 100¢ $704 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $94 26h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $21 26h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $5 27h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $16 27h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $2 27h
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Jannik Sinner 100¢ $54 20d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pl BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $2 95d
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs WATERMELON (+1.5) BUY WATERMELON 99¢ $18 110d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 61¢ $5 111d
Hornets vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 26¢ $2 113d
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Pegul BUY Svitolina 41¢ $1 116d
Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Minaur 86¢ $2 124d
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 71¢ $1 131d
Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan BUY Medvedev 82¢ $2 145d
Nets vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 83¢ $20 147d
Mavericks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 78¢ $3 149d
Nets vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 69¢ $3 150d
Suns vs. Heat BUY Heat 51¢ $2 154d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $1 178d
Lakers vs. Suns BUY Lakers 52¢ $1 185d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs 3DMAX (BO1) BUY paiN 89¢ $1 195d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY Yes $15 203d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? SELL No 100¢ $35 203d
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner BUY Sinner 63¢ $91 213d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Makhachev 74¢ $67 213d
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur BUY Sinner 93¢ $62 214d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $737.44 · official $737.44 (match) · 514 history records