Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58d6…15f9 other 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$14
politics 20% −$5
sports 8% −$15
economics 5% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -3.7% -12.9% 9% 4% -9.7%
all 100 -3.7% -12.9% 9% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 4% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 4% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 91
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage88d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $125 $125 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $69 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $233 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $191 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $210 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $197 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $101 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $234 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 19 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $198 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $372 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $194 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $182 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $345 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $187 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $354 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $187 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 05 $197 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $341 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $198 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $192 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $193 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $393 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $363 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $199 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $374 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $379 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $199 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $3 8h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 25h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 28h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 42h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 45h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $125 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 16d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 17d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 18d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 18d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 19d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.02 · official $128.02 (match) · 296 history records