Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:11:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58d5…e5b6 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 689d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$118 (-5%) realized −$117 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% +$2
sports 32% $0
other 23% −$2
crypto 9% −$118
culture 4% −$1
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 23 -10.7% -19.2% 39% 17% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 17% -17.1%
10% -26.9% 9% -25.0%
15% -34.0% 4% -32.3%
20% -40.4% 0% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

689d coverage
Net worth$581
Realized−$117
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)23 / 27
History coverage689d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $201 $201 −$0 (-0%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $180 $180 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026? Yes 94¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $313 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $380 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $196 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 28 $79 −$1 -1%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $76 $0 -0%
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 17 $2 $0 +7%
Will Jay-Z perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 17 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Trump remove his Rob Reiner post? Jan 25 $1 $0 +7%
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31? Jan 25 $1 $0 +47%
Will GenesisCupChampion win the Genesis Cup? Nov 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX rescue the stranded Chinese astronauts? Nov 27 $1 $0 +1%
Russia announces air truce by September 30? Oct 14 $6 $0 -7%
XRP above $2.10 on June 27? Jul 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alpine have the second highest Constructor score at the 2025 Mona Jun 21 $4 $0 -1%
Will USD0++ stabilize again before February? May 23 $4 $0 -1%
Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024? Jan 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? Dec 08 $115 $0 -0%
Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general el Dec 02 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk speak at Trump's Pennsylvania rally Saturday? Oct 20 $16 +$2 +11%
Hunter Biden in jail before election day? Oct 05 $1 $0 -1%
Crimean bridge hit before October? Oct 05 $2 $0 +2%
Pavel Durov released in August? Sep 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Aug 12 $197 −$116 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $180 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $200 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $199 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $200 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 99¢ $200 1h
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $313 54d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $191 54d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $190 55d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $188 55d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $190 55d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $313 55d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $98 83d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $78 83d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $79 85d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $98 85d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $98 85d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $98 85d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $76 120d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $76 123d
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 146d
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 146d
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 146d
Will Trump remove his Rob Reiner post? BUY No 94¢ $1 185d
Will GenesisCupChampion win the Genesis Cup? BUY No 78¢ $1 205d
Will SpaceX rescue the stranded Chinese astronauts? BUY No 99¢ $1 222d
Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 249d
Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 249d
Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 249d
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31? BUY No 68¢ $1 294d
Russia announces air truce by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $3 297d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $581.31 · official $581.31 (match) · 76 history records