Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58d3…1293 weather 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%189W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$20
14 days−$79
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% −$52
other 8% +$7
sports 3% +$13
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 106 -0.7% -10.2% 99% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 190 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.6%
all 190 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$103 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses189 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)190 / 191
History coverage54d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $270 $270 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $699 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $335 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $219 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $372 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $539 +$11 +2%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $215 $0 +0%
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $753 +$1 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $426 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $273 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $187 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $268 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $134 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $479 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $190 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 41°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $536 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $148 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $270 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $699 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $136 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $150 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $70 21h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 BUY No 100¢ $150 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $120 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $35 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $300 21h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $149 46h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $69 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $144 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $200 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $400 47h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $72 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $205 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $150 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $24 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $300 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 100¢ $316 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 96¢ $191 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 96¢ $17 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 96¢ $14 3d
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $200 3d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $215 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $253 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.13 · official $270.13 (match) · 462 history records