Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x58d1…d768 world 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% $0
other 34% $0
crypto 6% +$1
politics 4% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 7 -1.2% -10.6% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 -1.2% -10.6% 43% 0% -9.3%
all 18 +0.5% -9.1% 61% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.56 per $1 lost it wins $2.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage448d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $39 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $2 $0 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $43 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $25 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $10 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $6 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Dec 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $40 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $11 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $24 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $4 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $39 27h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $30 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $6 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $27 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $25 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $12 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $13 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $40 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $40 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 56¢ $7 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $7 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $2 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $3 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $6 26d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 98¢ $2 353d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 95¢ $1 367d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 97¢ $2 393d
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? SELL Yes $2 407d
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? BUY Yes $2 408d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $1 422d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.56 · official $39.56 (match) · 47 history records