Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:55:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

58 0x58d1…5cf6 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$99 (+8%) realized +$103 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate57%12W / 9L

Drawdown60%max

Avg bet$48per market

Trades / day5.5pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$63

7 days−$63

14 days+$100

30 days+$100

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)-5.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-38.1%	-44.0%	45%	36%	-20.1%
≤30d	21	+4.2%	-5.7%	57%	48%	-0.6%
≤90d	21	+4.2%	-5.7%	57%	48%	-0.6%
all	21	+4.2%	-5.7%	57%	48%	-0.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.7%	48%	-0.6%
10%	-14.7%	43%	-10.1%
15%	-23.0%	29%	-18.8%
20%	-30.5%	24%	-26.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +51% → late -38% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$17 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$76

Realized+$103

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses12 / 9

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)21 / 27

History coverage8d

Avg bet$48

Trades / day5.5

Drawdown60%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	47¢	38¢	$55	$44	−$11 (-20%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	24¢	30¢	$25	$32	+$7 (+27%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 20	$151	+$34	+23%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)	Jun 20	$48	−$48	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$178	+$22	+12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$22	+$23	+105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$25	+$8	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Jun 18	$10	+$1	+8%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	Jun 18	$73	−$73	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Jun 18	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5	Jun 13	$71	+$2	+3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$71	$0	-0%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$21	+$53	+249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Jun 12	$10	+$11	+105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 12	$5	−$1	-12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Jun 12	$5	+$5	+102%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$169	+$40	+24%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$10	+$9	+88%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$109	+$48	+43%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$56	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	24¢	$26	1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	SELL Brazil	100¢	$185	1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)	BUY Brazil	78¢	$48	2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	BUY Brazil	81¢	$151	2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	99¢	$200	2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	88¢	$178	3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$20	28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$22	28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$33	47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	75¢	$25	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	99¢	$73	7d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5	SELL Under	99¢	$73	7d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	96¢	$71	7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	98¢	$71	7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	98¢	$71	7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? A	BUY	25¢	$61	7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? A	BUY	18¢	$51	7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY	15¢	$31	7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$75	7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$21	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$10	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	SELL Down	2¢	$0	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	SELL Up	29¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	SELL Up	59¢	$11	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$2	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.65 · official $74.61 · 53 history records