Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x58cc…2296 sports 522 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$308 (+2%) realized +$279 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%323W / 197L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$637
crypto 5% −$347
other 4% −$1
tech 0% −$36
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +11.5% +0.9% 83% 67% +5.6%
≤30d 62 -4.8% -13.8% 60% 55% -16.8%
≤90d 491 -2.4% -11.7% 62% 59% -9.4%
all 520 +1.1% -8.5% 62% 60% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 60% -8.3%
10% -17.3% 52% -17.1%
15% -25.3% 40% -25.1%
20% -32.6% 28% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$24 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$279
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses323 / 197
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions1
Markets (closed)520 / 522
History coverage250d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 520 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova Darja Semenistaja 63¢ 100¢ $50 $79 +$29 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $25 +$23 +90%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 23 $70 +$8 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day Jun 23 $60 +$12 +20%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $50 +$20 +40%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Amelia Rajecki vs Suzan Lamens Jun 23 $60 +$4 +7%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $51 +$34 +67%
Counter-Strike: Partizan Esport vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - Exort Series Mai Jun 01 $41 −$3 -8%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $90 +$11 +12%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage Jun 01 $60 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs Entropy (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 01 $41 −$40 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $51 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $45 −$45 -99%
Birmingham: Mark Lajal vs Leandro Riedi Jun 01 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: New Meta vs DetonatioN FocusMe Academy (BO3) - LJL Regular Season May 27 $60 +$16 +26%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Aurora Gaming PH (BO5) - MPL Phil May 27 $50 +$19 +38%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $40 +$25 +62%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League S May 27 $70 +$18 +26%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 P May 27 $20 +$18 +90%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Alisa Danilova vs Ginevra Parentini Vallega Montebrun May 27 $10 +$24 +233%
ITF Luan: Tsung Hao Huang vs Ryotaro Taguchi May 27 $10 +$9 +90%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $40 +$22 +55%
ITF Kutaisi: Robin Catry vs Julian Alonso Vivanco May 27 $30 −$3 -9%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Ivan Iutkin vs Dmitry Bessonov May 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 26 $41 +$32 +79%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $50 +$13 +26%
Roland Garros WTA: Claire Liu vs Moyuka Uchijima May 26 $35 +$25 +70%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala May 26 $55 +$21 +38%
Roland Garros WTA: Emma Navarro vs Janice Tjen May 26 $60 +$20 +32%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs Nova Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act May 26 $41 +$32 +79%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Gr May 26 $40 +$26 +65%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 26 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Wuning: Chenting Zhu vs Yanan Hou May 26 $40 +$10 +24%
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Ekaterina Yashina May 26 $50 +$5 +10%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: China vs Indonesia May 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - European Pro Leag May 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Kosice (Doubles): Ayeni/Cook vs Pokorny/Poljak May 26 $40 −$40 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Zachary Svajda May 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $41 +$30 +73%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $30 +$25 +83%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $36 +$32 +90%
Little Rock: Andre Ilagan vs Yasutaka Uchiyama May 26 $41 +$38 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $50 +$19 +38%
World Championships: Slovenia vs. Italy May 25 $30 +$21 +68%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Zakharova vs Karolina Muchova May 25 $50 +$15 +29%
Valorant: Joblife vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 25 $40 +$10 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova BUY Darja Semenistaja 63¢ $51 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Amelia Rajecki vs Suzan Lamens BUY Suzan Lamens 93¢ $60 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar BUY Panna Udvardy 71¢ $50 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao BUY Carol Zhao 44¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 89¢ $70 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day BUY Kayla Day 83¢ $60 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Sara Bejlek 52¢ $25 1h
England to score first vs. Ghana? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 74¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage BUY LPH Gaming 73¢ $60 22d
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs Entropy (BO3) - European Pro League Seri BUY Project 91 53¢ $41 22d
Counter-Strike: Partizan Esport vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - Exort Series Mai BUY Partizan Esport 54¢ $41 22d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 85¢ $80 22d
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider BUY Madison Keys 59¢ $51 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anastasia Potapova 65¢ $45 22d
Birmingham: Mark Lajal vs Leandro Riedi BUY Leandro Riedi 67¢ $61 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Matteo Berrettini 59¢ $51 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda BUY Flavio Cobolli 89¢ $90 22d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Aurora Gaming PH (BO5) - MPL Phil BUY ONIC PH 72¢ $50 27d
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY GenOne 79¢ $70 27d
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 P BUY Johnny Speeds 52¢ $20 27d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 66¢ $51 27d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $40 27d
LoL: New Meta vs DetonatioN FocusMe Academy (BO3) - LJL Regular Season BUY New Meta 79¢ $60 27d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 61¢ $40 27d
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Alisa Danilova vs Ginevra Parentini Vallega Montebrun BUY Alisa Danilova 29¢ $10 27d
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Ivan Iutkin vs Dmitry Bessonov BUY Dmitry Bessonov 54¢ $20 27d
ITF Luan: Tsung Hao Huang vs Ryotaro Taguchi BUY Tsung Hao Huang 52¢ $10 27d
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Ekaterina Yashina BUY Zongyu Li 91¢ $50 28d
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: China vs Indonesia BUY Indonesia 91¢ $40 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.33 · official $104.33 · 1035 history records