Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:20:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58ca…c5a6 world 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$11
world 33% −$2
politics 20% $0
other 13% −$7
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.6% -11.0% 33% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 7 -0.9% -10.3% 43% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 19 -1.4% -10.8% 21% 0% -10.2%
all 24 -5.1% -14.2% 29% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 0% -10.6%
10% -22.4% 0% -19.2%
15% -29.9% 0% -27.0%
20% -36.8% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage534d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $67 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 -6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $41 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $40 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 23 $56 −$7 -12%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $62 −$1 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 22 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $66 −$3 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $70 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $236 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $287 −$2 -1%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 31 $281 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $33 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Mar 30 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? May 06 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 25 $3 $0 -5%
Will Liverpool vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Jan 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $42 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $6 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $18 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $18 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $10 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 38¢ $26 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $0 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $6 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 11d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $17 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $25 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $20 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $22 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $38 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $4 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $40 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $44 14d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam SELL No 90¢ $26 58d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam SELL No 88¢ $25 58d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam BUY No 88¢ $50 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records