Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:57:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58c9…52ad sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,007 (-9%) realized −$894 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$165est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$787now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$679
7 days−$1,675
14 days−$1,798
30 days−$1,798
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$1,571
other 12% −$340
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -20.2% -27.8% 43% 43% -24.7%
≤30d 43 -13.4% -21.6% 44% 44% -24.9%
≤90d 43 -13.4% -21.6% 44% 44% -24.9%
all 43 -13.4% -21.6% 44% 44% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 44% -24.9%
10% -29.1% 44% -32.1%
15% -36.0% 40% -38.6%
20% -42.3% 33% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$200 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$787
Realized−$894
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage8d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 63¢ 39¢ $700 $435 −$265 (-38%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 53¢ 94¢ $200 $353 +$153 (+76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 +$102 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $811 −$800 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $3,523 +$1,099 +31%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$9 +29%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $152 +$174 +114%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$39 +76%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $254 −$250 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $248 +$250 +101%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 +$116 +114%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $132 +$86 +65%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $60 +$22 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $152 −$123 -81%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $100 −$95 -94%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $202 +$131 +64%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $200 +$304 +152%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $72 +$128 +177%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $349 −$279 -80%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $155 +$88 +57%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $180 +$94 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $302 −$300 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $544 −$536 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $32 +$14 +44%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $154 −$124 -80%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $354 −$346 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $126 +$138 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +249%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $139 −$137 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $71 +$113 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $111 −$87 -78%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $151 +$63 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $254 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $152 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $708 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $811 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 48¢ $1,654 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $3,523 8h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 25h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 46¢ $102 26h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 46¢ $51 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $254 27h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $51 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $248 35h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $51 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $217 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $30 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $102 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $81 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $82 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 73¢ $60 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 9¢ $29 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $787.42 · official $787.42 (match) · 81 history records