Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x58c9…8174 sports 467 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8,376 (+4%) realized +$8,672 · open −$296
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%258W / 174L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$509per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$965est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$2,508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$5
30 days+$1,322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$7,610
other 3% +$882
politics 1% −$400
world 0% +$59
tech 0% −$77
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% −$5
weather 0% −$20
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -13.4% -21.6% 60% 55% -15.4%
≤30d 68 -2.4% -11.7% 69% 59% -5.0%
≤90d 266 -42.2% -47.7% 39% 29% -15.9%
all 432 +1.5% -8.2% 60% 50% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 50% -6.3%
10% -17.0% 38% -15.3%
15% -25.0% 31% -23.5%
20% -32.4% 24% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$231 vs −$302 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$2,508
Realized+$8,672
Unrealized−$296
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses258 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$965
Open positions32
Markets (closed)432 / 467
History coverage234d
Avg bet$509
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 66¢ $1,000 $1,320 +$320 (+32%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 34¢ $1,000 $680 −$320 (-32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 17¢ $49 $78 +$28 (+57%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $71 $66 −$5 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $30 $48 +$18 (+60%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $57 $47 −$10 (-17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $44 $38 −$6 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $39 $30 −$9 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $29 +$5 (+20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $20 +$5 (+36%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 67¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+49%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $10 +$2 (+34%)
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 84¢ 72¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 89¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $16 +$4 +27%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$2 +18%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $14 +$6 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $8 +$3 +44%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +42%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 11 $4 $0 +12%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 11 $9 +$6 +60%
Will Bilibili Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 10 $11 $0 -1%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $8 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs against All authority (BO3) - European Pro Jun 07 $4 +$1 +17%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 07 $11 +$2 +21%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $6 +$4 +65%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? Jun 06 $11 +$4 +38%
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? Jun 05 $12 −$12 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 05 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +18%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 03 $8 +$4 +46%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 02 $12 +$3 +27%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8 +$14 +183%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 01 $46 +$4 +10%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) May 31 $4 +$1 +21%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $132 +$19 +14%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $91 +$9 +10%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $20 +$5 +24%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 29 $84 +$16 +19%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $5 +$5 +97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 27 $13 +$1 +8%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 27 $40 +$12 +30%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 26 $75 +$25 +34%
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5) May 25 $7 +$1 +16%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 25 $55 +$45 +83%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 25 $85 +$15 +18%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif May 24 $202 −$4 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 37¢ $2 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $7 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $4 24h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Colom BUY 12¢ $1 25h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Vici Gaming 86¢ $6 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 SELL 27¢ $7 25h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 78¢ $16 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $13 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $14 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 19¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? A BUY 49¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $8 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $9 4d
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $6 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 85¢ $9 5d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $18 5d
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $5 5d
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 5d
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Yellow Submarine 62¢ $4 6d
Will Bilibili Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $8 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 6d
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Yellow Submarine 62¢ $5 6d
Will Bilibili Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $3 6d
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $7 7d
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? BUY Made 79¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,508.15 · official $2,510.24 (match) · 1570 history records