Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:29:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58c8…ba31 sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$20 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day70.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +23.1% +11.4% 57% 21% -2.7%
≤30d 14 +23.1% +11.4% 57% 21% -2.7%
≤90d 14 +23.1% +11.4% 57% 21% -2.7%
all 14 +23.1% +11.4% 57% 21% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.4% 21% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here +0.7% 14% -12.0%
15% -9.0% 14% -20.5%
20% -17.9% 14% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late +104% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day70.8
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Belle Thompson 31¢ 48¢ $13 $19 +$7 (+53%)
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Celia Anson Sanchez 51¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 15¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Carlos Maria Zarate 48¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $93 +$18 +19%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Sabine Rutlauka Jun 15 $22 +$3 +16%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $12 +$1 +10%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $107 +$20 +19%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $96 +$7 +7%
Set Handicap: Ratti (-1.5) vs Hemery (+1.5) Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Set 2 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $112 +$2 +2%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Coleman Wong vs. Billy Harris: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Wong (-1.5) vs Harris (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Wong vs. Harris: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $4 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 51¢ $25 19m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez SELL Belle Thompson 52¢ $5 20m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez SELL Belle Thompson 22¢ $2 28m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez SELL Belle Thompson 22¢ $1 28m
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez SELL Juan Sebastian Gomez 36¢ $48 32m
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 15¢ $3 32m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 17¢ $1 32m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 17¢ $2 32m
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 33¢ $3 33m
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 48¢ $3 37m
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez SELL Juan Sebastian Gomez 52¢ $3 37m
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 42¢ $3 38m
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez SELL Juan Sebastian Gomez 35¢ $2 39m
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 31¢ $3 39m
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez SELL Juan Sebastian Gomez 34¢ $3 39m
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 29¢ $3 41m
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez SELL Juan Sebastian Gomez 27¢ $6 41m
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 19¢ $3 43m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 20¢ $3 44m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 22¢ $3 44m
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 20¢ $3 44m
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 31¢ $19 51m
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 31¢ $9 52m
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 31¢ $0 52m
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro SELL Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 12¢ $4 52m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 40¢ $15 53m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 40¢ $2 53m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 40¢ $7 53m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 40¢ $2 53m
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 31¢ $2 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.42 · official $19.21 (match) · 344 history records