Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:37:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
58 0x58c5…610f sports 59 markets active 14h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$959 (+1%) realized +$928 · open +$31
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate67%39W / 19L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$2,033per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$658
7 days−$626
14 days+$117
30 days+$905
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$130
sports 5% +$254
other 3% +$683
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -12.9% -21.2% 41% 41% -34.5%
≤30d 45 +13.6% +2.8% 58% 53% -1.6%
≤90d 45 +13.6% +2.8% 58% 53% -1.6%
all 58 +10.6% +0.1% 67% 41% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.1% 41% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -9.5% 41% -17.5%
15% -18.2% 41% -25.4%
20% -26.3% 38% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,274) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$151 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized+$928
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses39 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage158d
Avg bet$2,033
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 54¢ 62¢ $200 $231 +$31 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$98 +97%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $101 +$58 +57%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $505 −$500 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $101 −$12 -12%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$103 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $203 +$241 +119%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $58 +$52 +89%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 +$136 +134%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $101 +$80 +79%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $203 +$159 +78%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $102 +$121 +119%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1,274 +$131 +10%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $102 +$121 +119%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $102 +$103 +101%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $102 +$126 +124%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $101 +$63 +62%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $101 +$98 +96%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $101 +$48 +48%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $101 +$95 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $101 +$71 +70%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Alex Palou win the 2026 IndyCar Detroit Grand Prix? Jun 01 $708 +$408 +58%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $660 −$650 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $104 −$102 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $1,012 +$683 +67%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $101 +$53 +52%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $102 +$454 +444%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $101 +$46 +46%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $1,954 +$61 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 31? Feb 01 $9,989 +$20 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $9,969 +$20 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 20? Jan 20 $9,959 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 19? Jan 19 $5,671 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 19? Jan 19 $4,278 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 52¢ $101 13h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Brandon Nakashima 63¢ $101 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $505 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 30h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 54¢ $101 30h
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) BUY Paul 50¢ $102 36h
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 57¢ $101 38h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 52¢ $58 2d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 54¢ $203 5d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 70¢ $101 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 63¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 55¢ $101 7d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta BUY Leviatán Esports 49¢ $102 8d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta BUY Leviatán Esports 64¢ $101 8d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 45¢ $102 8d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 29¢ $102 9d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 79¢ $273 9d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 30¢ $102 9d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 67¢ $101 9d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 45¢ $102 10d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 44¢ $102 10d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.20 · official $319.20 (match) · 121 history records